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تحلیل تجربی رفتار تودهوار سرمایه گذاران در بازار سهام: شواهدی از شرایط مختلف اقتصادی و اجتماعی در ایران | ||
مدیریت دارایی و تامین مالی | ||
مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 13 بهمن 1403 | ||
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22108/amf.2025.142503.1913 | ||
نویسنده | ||
مجید آقایی* | ||
دانشیار اقتصاد مالی و انرژی، گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد و امور اداری ،دانشگاه مازندران، ایران | ||
چکیده | ||
The stock exchange, as one of the most important sources of corporate financing and a platform for investing individual savings, has attracted a significant portion of domestic capital in recent years, playing a crucial role in the economic growth and development of the country. Despite the importance of the stock market in Iran's economy, detailed analysis of investor behavior and their responses to economic and social changes has received little attention. This study examines herding behavior in the Tehran Stock Exchange under various economic and social conditions, such as before and after exchange rate fluctuations, before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, and during bullish and bearish markets over the period from April 2015 to March 2023, based on the overall stock price index and the price index of the top 50 companies. Data analysis was conducted using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and quantile regression. The results indicate that herding behavior is significantly observed in the Iranian stock market throughout the entire period studied and across most quantiles (from the 0.05 to the 0.75 quantile) in both indices. According to the findings, herding behavior was clearly evident before the intense exchange rate fluctuations, but after these fluctuations, the herding behavior cannot be confirmed due to the insignificance of the coefficient obtained. The results also show that herding behavior was present in the Iranian stock market before the COVID-19 outbreak, but significantly decreased after the outbreak, even reversing in some cases. | ||
کلیدواژهها | ||
رفتار تودهوار؛ رگرسیون چارکی؛ پاندمی کووید؛ نوسانات نرخ ارز؛ بازارهای خرسی و گاوی | ||
آمار تعداد مشاهده مقاله: 27 |